Live prediction markets

Where predictions
become competition.

Prediction Arena is the social competition layer for prediction markets. We turn their odds into fun games anyone can play — play with friends, team up, go solo, or face the whole community.

Play with friends · Compete in seasons · Your record is the proof

🗳️Politics & Elections>US Politics

2028 Presidential Election

4 events
JD Vance

Will JD Vance win the 2028 election?

Yes39.0%
No61.0%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 election?

Yes31.0%
No69.0%

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 election?

Yes9.0%
No91.0%
+1 more event
Ends Nov 7, 2028$42.3M vol
🌍Geopolitics>Trade & Sanctions

US-China Trade Relations

2 events
USAChina

Will there be a US-China trade deal by 2027?

Yes22.0%
No78.0%

Will US tariffs on China exceed 60% by 2027?

Yes45.0%
No55.0%
Ends Jan 1, 2027$6.1M vol
🏆Sports>Soccer

2026 FIFA World Cup

5 events
2026 World Cup

Will Spain win the 2026 World Cup?

Yes22.0%
No78.0%

Will France win the 2026 World Cup?

Yes19.0%
No81.0%

Will Argentina win the 2026 World Cup?

Yes15.0%
No85.0%
+2 more events
Ends Jul 19$28.5M vol
Crypto>Crypto Prices

Bitcoin Price Milestones

3 events
Bitcoin

Will Bitcoin reach $200K by end of 2026?

Yes34.0%
No66.0%

Will Bitcoin reach $150K by July 2026?

Yes52.0%
No48.0%

Will Bitcoin close above $100K in Q3 2026?

Yes71.0%
No29.0%
Ends Dec 31$14.8M vol
📈Finance & Economy>Central Banks

Federal Reserve Rate Decisions

2 events
Federal Reserve

Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?

Yes67.0%
No33.0%

Will US enter recession by end of 2026?

Yes28.0%
No72.0%
Ends Dec 31$9.4M vol
🤖Technology>Artificial Intelligence

GPT-5 & Next-Gen AI

2 events
OpenAI

Will GPT-5 be released by July 2026?

Yes46.0%
No54.0%

Will OpenAI IPO by end of 2026?

Yes31.0%
No69.0%
Ends Dec 31$5.2M vol
🎬Culture & Entertainment>Movies & TV

2026 Box Office Race

1 event

Will a Marvel movie gross $2B in 2026?

Yes16.0%
No84.0%
Ends Dec 31$1.2M vol
🔬Science & Nature>Space Exploration

SpaceX Mars Mission

1 event
SpaceX

Will SpaceX complete a crewed Mars mission by 2030?

Yes13.0%
No87.0%
Ends Dec 31, 2030$890K vol
🗳️Politics & Elections>US Politics

2028 Presidential Election

4 events
JD Vance

Will JD Vance win the 2028 election?

Yes39.0%
No61.0%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 election?

Yes31.0%
No69.0%

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 election?

Yes9.0%
No91.0%
+1 more event
Ends Nov 7, 2028$42.3M vol
🌍Geopolitics>Trade & Sanctions

US-China Trade Relations

2 events
USAChina

Will there be a US-China trade deal by 2027?

Yes22.0%
No78.0%

Will US tariffs on China exceed 60% by 2027?

Yes45.0%
No55.0%
Ends Jan 1, 2027$6.1M vol
🏆Sports>Soccer

2026 FIFA World Cup

5 events
2026 World Cup

Will Spain win the 2026 World Cup?

Yes22.0%
No78.0%

Will France win the 2026 World Cup?

Yes19.0%
No81.0%

Will Argentina win the 2026 World Cup?

Yes15.0%
No85.0%
+2 more events
Ends Jul 19$28.5M vol
Crypto>Crypto Prices

Bitcoin Price Milestones

3 events
Bitcoin

Will Bitcoin reach $200K by end of 2026?

Yes34.0%
No66.0%

Will Bitcoin reach $150K by July 2026?

Yes52.0%
No48.0%

Will Bitcoin close above $100K in Q3 2026?

Yes71.0%
No29.0%
Ends Dec 31$14.8M vol
📈Finance & Economy>Central Banks

Federal Reserve Rate Decisions

2 events
Federal Reserve

Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?

Yes67.0%
No33.0%

Will US enter recession by end of 2026?

Yes28.0%
No72.0%
Ends Dec 31$9.4M vol
🤖Technology>Artificial Intelligence

GPT-5 & Next-Gen AI

2 events
OpenAI

Will GPT-5 be released by July 2026?

Yes46.0%
No54.0%

Will OpenAI IPO by end of 2026?

Yes31.0%
No69.0%
Ends Dec 31$5.2M vol
🎬Culture & Entertainment>Movies & TV

2026 Box Office Race

1 event

Will a Marvel movie gross $2B in 2026?

Yes16.0%
No84.0%
Ends Dec 31$1.2M vol
🔬Science & Nature>Space Exploration

SpaceX Mars Mission

1 event
SpaceX

Will SpaceX complete a crewed Mars mission by 2030?

Yes13.0%
No87.0%
Ends Dec 31, 2030$890K vol

How It Works

🔍
Step 01

Explore What’s Happening

Browse thousands of real-world events with live odds — elections, crypto prices, AI milestones, geopolitical shifts, sports outcomes, scientific breakthroughs, and more. Everything is organized into categories, subcategories, and tagged by entity so you can find exactly the topics you follow.

👥
Step 02

Play With Your People

Create a private game with friends, join an open game anyone can enter, or hop into a competitive season with the whole community. Follow creators who run their own branded leagues. Every pick is scored against real outcomes — your feed, your DMs, and the leaderboards all track what everyone called.

📊
Step 03

Build a Record That Follows You

Every pick you make is permanent and public. Accuracy, streaks, tier, Arena Points — all visible on your profile. Your record is what makes the social layer real: follows and posts back by actual forecast history, not vibes.

The Deepest Categorization in Prediction Markets

Eight top-level categories, hundreds of subcategories, and thousands of entities — organized four levels deep so you can find exactly the topics you follow.

Cards below show a snapshot of each category. The full tree is deeper.

Markets & Events

You've seen the categories and the entities. Here's what the thing you actually pick on looks like.

Market
A broad question with many possible outcomes
live now
Event
A single yes/no question with live odds
live now
🗳️Politics & Elections>US Politics>2028 Presidential Election

“Who will win the 2028 presidential election?”

JD VanceGavin NewsomJosh ShapiroRepublican PartyDemocratic Party

24 events · Ends Nov 7, 2028 · $42.3M volume

🗳️Politics & Elections>US Politics>2028 Presidential Election

Will JD Vance win the 2028 presidential election?

JD VanceRepublican Party
Yes
39.0%
$1 → $2.56
No
61.0%
$1 → $1.64
🏆Sports>Soccer>International

“Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”

2026 World CupSpainFranceArgentinaBrazilEngland

58 events · Ends Jul 19, 2026 · $28.5M volume

🏆Sports>Soccer>2026 FIFA World Cup

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

2026 World CupSpain
Yes
22.0%
$1 → $4.55
No
78.0%
$1 → $1.28
Market → Event

Markets contain events. Events have live odds. You pick your position — and your accuracy is scored when the outcome resolves.

Host your own game. Or join anyone else's.

Prediction Arena is a game engine. Pick any slice of the market data — a category, a single market, a set of entities — and wrap it in a game. Choose a format, set the rules, invite your friends or open it to the world. The engine handles rounds, scoring, and live ranking.

🎯
Pick your topic

Any category, subcategory, set of entities, or hand-picked list of events. A crypto game, a 2028 election game, a game on everything involving OpenAI — whatever you want.

Crypto pricesNBA playoffsAI milestonesCustom watchlist
🏆
Pick your format

Seasons, tournaments, matches — just the starting points. Set the round count, duration, scoring rules, and elimination logic. The engine runs it.

SeasonTournamentMatchBracketLeague+ more
👥
Pick your audience

Invite your friends directly, share a join code with a group chat, open it up to your followers, or make it public to the whole community.

Private inviteGroup chatFollowers onlyPublic

On top of the engine, every game runs in one of two modes —

Friendly & Competitive

Same engine, two different stakes. The only real difference is whether the result moves your global skill ranking.

Friendly Mode

Your game, your rules, your people.

You pick the topic, the format, and who's in. Invite your group chat, host an open community game, or set up a recurring league for your Discord. Picks still score against real outcomes — the difference is that results don't touch your global rank. Play for bragging rights, not a permanent record.

You choose the topicYou set the rulesPrivate or openDoesn't affect global rankBragging rights only
Competitive Mode

Same game for everyone. One global scoreboard.

Official Arena-run games with standardized markets and standardized rules. Every player faces the same slate, so results are directly comparable. Every pick moves your Arena Points and climbs you through tiers from Bronze to Grand Champion. Your record is permanent and public.

Open to everyoneStandardized marketsStandardized rulesMoves your Arena PointsGlobal leaderboard

Every game has a scoreboard.

Picks are scored against real outcomes. Players climb. Results are live. Toggle between games to see what a leaderboard actually looks like mid-flight.

🏛️
2026 U.S. Midterms
Round 4 of 6 · 148 players
Competitive
#PlayerAccAR
🥇
PolicyWonkGrand Champion
74%
+24.1
🥈
ElectionHawkDiamond
69%
+17.6
🥉
SwingStateSamDiamond
66%
+12.3
4
BeltwayAnnaPlatinum
63%
+7.8
5
RedBlueReadsGold
59%
+3.4

AR = Arena Return (per-pick edge) · Δ = rank change since last round

View all Competitive games →

Creators build the audience. Sponsors reach it.

Hosts grow communities around their games. Brands back the competitions those communities show up for. Prediction Arena is the marketplace in the middle.

For Creators

Build an audience around your takes.

Host games on the topics you know best — crypto, politics, AI, sports, culture — and build a community of players around your name. Curate the markets, set the rules, run a recurring season. The audience you build is yours, and every channel on top of it — referral revenue, sponsor partnerships, pick sales, brand deals — compounds from there.

Host gamesGrow a followingReferral revenueSell picksLand sponsors
Learn about creating
For Sponsors

Reach the audience creators have built.

Back the seasons, tournaments, and leagues creators are already running. Fund the prize pool, brand the competition, and put your name in front of a category-matched audience that's actively paying attention — crypto, tech, politics, sports, whatever your product fits.

Reach engaged audiencesFund prize poolsCategory-matched targetingBrand the competitionLong-running presence
Learn about sponsoring

Past the noise

The internet is buried in loud takes. You shouldn't have to sort through all of it to find who's actually worth listening to — just open the leaderboard. Every opinion here carries a track record, so the sharpest forecasters surface on their own.

The arena is open.

Follow forecasters, post your picks, let real markets settle the score. Every take backed by a record that compounds over time.

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